Idealism Level as a Sentiment Indicator in Crypto

fooo69
3 min readDec 12, 2020

When we are in true euphoria, all kinds of groups across the social, cultural and political spectrum are going to be attempting to co-opt crypto for their own interests, or insist they be given some too after missing out

Right now, the smart money already bought the bottom and institutions are loading up for the gigapump.

A lot of same people who say crypto is “stupid” or “too risky” or whatever nowadays will either be clamoring for how they deserve some kind of “do over” from the government, or else buying the top from the smart money and simultaneously transformed into crypto super-idealists.

Many that thought crypto was “stupid” before will “look into it deeper” and “realize it can do so much good in the world” — these are the people who will hate you for taking profits…

Look, idealism is fine. It is desirable in society that most people want to be good people and do good things…

but markets are cyclical. They just are — it is their nature (bc human nature). Especially with formulation of a completely new type of asset, you’re going to see crazy volatility.

To put it another way, there would simply not be enough interest in manufacturing massive bull market pumps if the powers-that-be didn’t have bear markets during which to accumulate. Eventually, smart money engineers liquidity for a top, retail fomos to buy their bags, inspired by the narrative-du-jour (last cycle was the ICO craze, this cycle will likely be DeFi or fiat inflation or something), and a new bear market commences.

Here is the crux of this article: sellers will catch a ton of hate from the self-professed purity and bright-eyed idealism of arm-chair philosophers (some good intentioned, some virtue-signaling) who buy during the bull run, all of which will truly hate you or think you’re evil for taking profit or shorting.

Think about it: right now, in the 2020 era, we are coming out of a long, excruciating bear market. When you announce a short, you’re seen as either “brain brain bera” or at least no one is blaming you for it. That’s literally bc the only people that have survived in this space this long are either scarred by the bear market, or are mercenaries who see this market as a vehicle for speculators with the patience and discipline to profit…

why would you ever think “this time’s different?” And yet everyone continues to be surprised that crypto is cyclical (typically because they buy into narratives). Just because it is predictable doesn’t mean people can be spared… they are going to do what they are going to do because people like to convince themselves to buy number go up…

After they getting chewed up and spit out by the market, they might claim that those who shorted are just “fatalists,” or whatever, but again, it just betrays their lack of understanding of how money moves through markets to make them go…

but they won’t listen to fooo…

this is the new bottom. Once “idealism” sentiment is at 99 instead of 1 like it is now, and everyone is either “in it for the tech”, talking about how crypto is gonna save the world, or trying to co-opt it for either the red or blue team? That’s the next top.

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